Scientific Publications by FDA Staff

Am J Agr Econ 2016 Jul;98(4):1038-54

Advertising, habit formation, and US tobacco product demand.

Zheng YQ, Zhen C, Nonnemaker J, Dench D

The U.S. tobacco market has experienced a shift toward noncigarette tobacco products. We examined the degree of habit formation and the role of advertising for cigarettes, little cigars/cigarillos, large cigars, e-cigarettes, and smokeless tobacco using market-level scanner data for convenience stores from 2009 to 2013. Results based on a dynamic demand system show that while all tobacco products are habitual, e-cigarettes are the most habitual product. More choices of flavors, less restrictions on its use in public places, less documented harmful effects, and a higher upfront cost might explain the higher degree of habit formation for e-cigarettes. We also find that e-cigarettes did not substitute for or complement cigarettes. The results imply that e-cigarettes may serve as a gateway to nicotine addiction but not necessarily to cigarette smoking. Regarding advertising, cigarette magazine advertising did not affect cigarette demand, while e-cigarette TV advertising increased e-cigarette demand with a positive spillover to cigarette demand. Such results may help explain e-cigarettes' recent success in sales and imply that e-cigarette TV advertising might undermine efforts to reduce cigarette smoking. Advertising was also found to affect the degree of habit formation for cigarettes, large cigars, and e-cigarettes.